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as Brexit raises borrowing by Philip Hammond must focus on "targeted, timely and temporary" tax cuts and spending increases to deal with the economic squeeze of leaving the EU, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
The think tank said an infrastructure spending boost would provide the Government with the most "bang for their buck" in the forthcoming Autumn Statement as it warned that the Chancellor faced 25bn in extra public borrowing following the Brexit vote, even if the UK stopped its EU budget contributions. Economists at the IFS kate spade blush warned that this meant the Government faced implementing more tax rises and spending cuts in the next parliament, as it suggested that "preparing for further austerity may be the wisest course of action". Mr Hammond has already abandoned a commitment by previous Chancellor George Osborne to balance the books by 2020, although he has said kate spade sunday the Government still intends to achieve kate spade briefcase the goal over a longer time horizon. The IFS urged the Chancellor to adopt "forward looking and flexible" fiscal goals. It praised the rolling targets adopted by the Coalition government in 2010 that focused on controlling day to day spending while adjusting for booms and busts in the economy. Analysis by the IFS showed the Government was now on course to borrow 60.5bn this fiscal year, 5bn more than the 55.5bn forecast in March by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). It kate spade discount purses said expectations of weaker growth following the referendum result had put the Government on course to borrow 14.9bn in 2020 instead of the 10.4bn surplus forecast by the fiscal watchdog in March. While the IFS said uncertainty about future growth meant there was still a 40pc chance the Government could balance the books by 2020, it said it was equally as likely that borrowing would be above 30bn by the end of the decade. Echoing language used by former US treasury secretary Lawrence Summers, the IFS recommended a one off boost to public sector investment spending, a temporary cut to the headline VAT rate as well as time limited tax breaks that encouraged companies to invest and stimulated housing transactions through a stamp duty holiday. It said these measures would "deliver the best bang for their buck in terms of impact on demand in the economy". It also said that bringing forward a Conservative manifesto pledge to raise the personal income tax allowance to 12,500 from 11,000 and the higher rate threshold to 50,000 from 43,000 next April instead of at the end of the parliament could "help increase demand in the economy when it is most needed".
While bringing forward their implementation would cost the Exchequer more in the short run, the IFS highlighted that it would not affect the long run public finances if the allowance was frozen in cash terms until 2021. "If long run potential output is reduced by the UK leaving the EU then in the end public spending will have to be lower, or taxes higher, than would otherwise have been the case." Mr Hammond has already stressed that any fiscal boost in the Autumn Statement will be "careful, considered and targeted" and designed to help the UK economy to cope with turbulence of leaving the EU.
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